A Skewed View of the World

    The recent cold snap that has enveloped the Eastern half of the United States has led to some serious (and some ridiculous) debates over the past week.  The loudest comments have come from those who do not believe that Global Climate Change is happening; people like Donald Trump, who went on Fox News and proclaimed Global Warming a joke.  (I guess filling in acres and acres of Wetlands to build casinos that require more and more coal-generated electricity to power them makes you a climate expert.)  If Global Warming isn't true, then obviously the human race can't possibly having an effect on the climate, these people reason.  They point to the fact that since we are seeing record breaking low temperatures right now, then Global Warming is a farce.

    Except, its Winter here in the Northern Hemisphere. Its supposed to be cold now. It is January after all.  Global Climate Change theories do not forecast the end of Winter; they predict more frequent swings from one extreme to the other. They indicate that climate patterns could begin to shift back and forth more frequently. They suggest higher highs and--believe it or not--lower lows are likely become more commonplace.

    If you read my last post about the Polar Vortex, you will remember that higher temperatures in the Arctic can disrupt that fairly stable and consistent weather pattern, forcing the jet stream farther south than normal, bringing with it colder temperatures. Global Climate Change could not only disrupt that weather pattern, but many, many others. It is called "Climate Change" for that very reason. We once thought that rising temperatures would mean just melting ice and rising seas. Now we see evidence that not only will we witness those particular effects, but we will also see wildly fluctuating temperatures and weather events.  And not just here, but everywhere in the world.

    Case in point: As I sit here in my office typing this, it is in the low 30's outside and raining. A cold,  chilling rain. This morning there was freezing rain and snow, making driving conditions treacherous. Tomorrow's forecast calls for temps in the low 60's with possible thunderstorms. Did I mention that the low temperature on Tuesday was 7 degrees Fahrenheit here in Severna Park, a mere three days ago? Now, thats a pretty big swing from one extreme to the other.  I am not a meteorologist, but it seems to me that these types of swings are becoming more frequent as the years go by. Does anyone else notice that, too? Does anyone notice how often I typed "frequent" or "frequency" in my last two posts?

    Let's be honest. This is just one week in one small part of the world ( and yes, the Eastern United States makes up just a small percentage of the world's total area, believe it or not).  What's happening right now along the Eastern Seaboard cannot be taken as a definitive sign of Global Climate Change. We have to look around elsewhere to see if similar events are taking place.  Like in Australia, where they are experiencing record breaking heat. Again. They are surpassing the records set over the last few years in many places on the Australian continent this week, and barely anyone is talking about it.  Why?  I can only speculate, but its probably due to the Northern Hemisphere bias that exists in today's world.
                                                                                   
    Did you realize that such a bias existed?  Its logical , if you think about it.  Most the of the world's population lives in the Northern Hemisphere.  It is estimated that around 10% of the world's population lives in the Southern Hemisphere, which makes sense since most of the land mass of the world is located in the Northern Hemisphere. That, coupled with the Western slant that our news, policies, events and activities have due to political power, population density and resource allocation, prevents us from seeing the whole picture.  We don't hear about record high temps in Australia or Super Cyclones in the South Pacific because those places are far away and no one really lives there. If hardly anyone lives there, why should we care?

fig 1 courtesy of econstudentlog.wordpress.com

    Well, we should care because it gives us the whole picture, not just of what's happening in our portion of the world, but what's happening the world over. The Earth is a series of systems and interactions and processes that are uniquely and delicately intertwined.  Changing small variables in one system can have a cascade effect on many others.  It is extremely complicated and we are only scratching the surface (in my opinion) on how they work in tandem and how they can be disrupted.  Ignoring all of these variables and focusing on just a small portion of the world can lead to unreliable conclusions.

   If your car was running strange, knocking and pinging, belching out dark sooty material from the tailpipe and dripping a gray sludgy material from the muffler, you would most likely take it to a mechanic, right? If that mechanic looked at the battery and tugged on a fan belt under the hood and said your car was running fine, would you feel confident he was right and be on your merry way? Or would tell him to look at the fuel injectors, the pistons, the exhaust system and the muffler since the battery and the fan belt seemed to have little to do with the tailpipe?  You don't have to be an expert on cars to understand he did a half-assed assessment of the problem, do you?  Why don't we take the same approach when it comes to our planet, our wellbeing and our future?

    It is fine to debate scientific theories and predictions. That's what makes science great!  Peer review,   deliberation and further study are what moves science forward and leads to a better understanding and more accurate theories.  But one must to look at as many variables as possible, or things will be incomplete and can lead to misconceptions.  Ninety percent of the world's population may live in the Northern Hemisphere, but weather patterns exist all over the globe. They are inter-connected.  Examining that data over long periods of time will give a more accurate picture of what is really taking place.  Latching on to one severe cold snap that occurs over a three day period to debunk decades and even centuries of data is irresponsible, especially when we are seeing another year begin with record breaking heat and extreme weather in other places in world.

The Polar Vortex and Climate Deniers

    With single digit and below zero temperatures enveloping half of the continental United States this week, there have been arguments from conservative types, like Professor Steven Hayward, that Climate Change is not true. Many have said that the Polar Vortex that has descended upon us, dropping temperatures to near record lows (and in many cases surpassing decades old records), means that Global Warming must be a farce, a lie, a made up story used so people buy solar panels and stop buying gasoline. Their reasoning is simple: if it’s cold outside right now, then how could the world's temperatures be rising?

    What is the Polar Vortex? According to Mark Fischetti of Scientific American, the polar vortex is "...a prevailing wind pattern that circles the Arctic, flowing from west to east all the way around the Earth." (Fischetti, 2014). This circular wind pattern usually holds the cold air near the Pole, but sometimes, as the pattern weakens, it can shift to the south, bringing with it Arctic cold temperatures.  As the Polar Vortex encounters the dipping jet stream, it can slow and stop its migration south, which can lead to heavy snows. [In 2010, Snowmaggedon was the result of this type of changing weather pattern, according to atmospheric scientists (Fischetti, 2014)]. Regardless, cold temperatures result, like what we are experiencing now. This type of event has happened in the past and it will happen again. The frequency that it takes place depends on a myriad of factors. 

courtesy of Climate & Society Lectures at Columbia University Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences

When arctic temperatures rise, they can push the jet stream farther south, leading to colder temperatures migrating into the lower latitudes.  Warmer average global temperatures can increase the frequency of these types of events. And frequency is the key to understanding Climate Change. 

    Climate Change is a result of Global Warming, among other things. To keep this short and sweet, here it is in a nutshell:

    •   Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere prevent heat from radiating out into space

    •   This can lead to rising temperatures world wide 

    •   The number of warmer days during a year increases 

    •   Warmer temperatures lead to more frequent and more powerful weather events (more energy in the atmosphere and more water vapor fuel more powerful storms)

    •   Jet Streams and weather patterns fluctuate more often, leading to more frequent severe and unusual weather events

Photo courtesy of Wing-Chi Poon on WikimediaCommons

    Just because its really cold outside right now doesn't mean Global Warming is a fairytale. A single cold weather event in the middle of January does not constitute a trend, nor does it disprove the complicated theory of Climate Change.  But there are many out there that want you to believe the opposite.

    Professor Steven Hayward discussed the Polar Vortex and "global warming" on the January 6th episode of "The Kudlow Report", saying "Global Warming is slowly going the way of a lot of the previous eco-disasters we can remember." He cites the population bomb warnings of the 70's, the supposed energy crisis we were supposed to have suffered and the scarcity of resources that many predicted as examples of other predicted global catastrophes that never came to pass. (I have to say I think the jury is still out on those).  You can watch the video here:

http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/53997809/#53997809

    Professor Hayward waves off Global Warming as just another example of an environmental crisis that follows an all too familiar pattern and script: Doom and gloom and a predictions of a coming global catastrophe.  His proof that global warming is bogus is the record breaking cold temperatures that have hit the USA for a few days in this month, January of 2014. 

    Therein lies the problem. Mr. Hayward unequivocally dismisses global warming just because it’s cold outside right now!  This from the same man who has stated in his books and articles that we need to study changing global temperatures over longer periods of time (more then the 150+ years of weather and temperature records, and much farther back then the 800,000 years of ice cores scientists have collected from all of the world).

    Mr. Hayward points to the Arctic Polar Ice Cap as further proof that Global Warming is false.  He states that in 2013, we saw "one of the largest rebounds of Arctic ice in the last 15 or 20 years." (CNBC.com, 2014). He failed to mention that 2012 saw the lowest Arctic ice levels ever recorded! That, coupled with this Arctic cold snap is proof (in his mind) that the world’s climate is not changing.  That's a bit like saying since your house has never been broken into, that crime doesn't exist.

                                                                           courtesy http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/scientists/clues.html

    
    Environmentalists have taken quite a bit of grief over the years as the theory of Global Warming has led to the theory of Climate Change.  As we learned more about Global Warming, we realized that higher temperatures had a much larger impact on the world's weather and climate patterns. As with all good scientific research, the more we learned, the more we understood and the theories evolved. Stagnant theories in science suggest a lack of research and discovery.  A changing and evolving theory suggests greater study and a growing understanding.  Hence Global Warming research led to the larger and more complex theories on Climate Change. 

    Mr. Hayward and others like him want you to believe that cold temperatures this winter mean Global Warming is a joke; that Climate Change is not real. However, these very same people preach that more data needs to be gathered over longer periods of time in order to fully understand the complexity of the Earth and all of its intricate patterns, interactions and changing cycles.  These types will stand on the mountaintops and claim that humans are the masters of the Earth, capable of wondrous feats, while in the next breath dismiss the idea that our race could have any meaningful impact on our environment. 

    The Polar Vortex is an example of how weather patterns can change over time. This type of weather pattern happened in the past and it will happen again in the future. When and how often it will happen depends on the complexity of Earth’s complicated weather interactions, which have been and will continue to be affected by human activities on our planet.

Fischetti, M. (Jan. 6, 2014). What is the "Polar Vortex" That Is Freezing the US? Retrieved January 7, 2014, from http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2014/01/06/what-is-this-polar-vortex-that-is-freezing-the-u-s/

CNBC. (Jan. 6, 2014). The Kudlow Report: What Happened to Global Warming? Retrieved January 7, 2013 from http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/53997809/#53997809